［Evening Session］ The Shutdown Continues， Gold Nears ＄４，０００

Gold

Due to the failure of the congressional appropriations bill to pass, the U.S. government has been shut down for 6 days. The Senate rejected the measures proposed by both the Democratic and Republican parties, resulting in the disruption of federal operations. Trump has frozen over $28 billion in infrastructure construction funds for New York State, California, and Illinois, leading to rising political uncertainty.

Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated that current interest rates have been appropriately adjusted, but inflation risks persist, and the Federal Reserve needs to strike a balance between employment and inflation.

Owen, Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research (exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that the U.S. government shutdown has a negative impact on the U.S. economy, increasing the possibility of the Federal Reserve accelerating interest rate cuts. At the same time, the scale of U.S. debt may expand further rapidly in the future; both factors will support gold prices.

Technical Analysis：Gold is in a bullish trend on the weekly and monthly charts. Since the end of August, it has risen by more than $600, with an increase of approximately 20%. From the hourly chart, gold has been rising slowly since last Friday (3 October), and the current price is approaching $4,000. No obvious top signals have emerged in the short term, but caution is still needed against a deep correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support level of $3,948; if it breaks below this level, the next target will be around $3,925.

Crude Oil

The results of the OPEC+ meeting last weekend showed that production will continue to increase by 137,000 barrels per day in November, a significant decrease from the previously expected increase of 500,000 barrels per day. Looking back at the past six months or so, it can be seen that OPEC+ has continued to increase production since April, and the magnitude of production increase has only slowed down in the past two months. Concerns about oversupply of crude oil still exist.

Data shows that U.S. crude oil consumption in September dropped to 20 million barrels per day. Combined with U.S. economic data, which has continued to decline in recent months, the sluggish demand for crude oil is understandable.

Technical Analysis：Crude oil has maintained a rebound trend in recent days. However, compared with the decline in the past two weeks, the rebound momentum is limited, and caution is needed against the rebound ending and a shift to a bearish trend at any time. In addition, the daily chart has been in a volatile downward trend for a long time, with bears dominating. If the $60 level is breached, there will be a risk of retesting the support at $55 or even breaking below $50.

U.S. Dollar Index

Stephen Miran, the newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor, once again called on the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive approach to interest rate cuts. She believes that the U.S. economy has undergone significant changes under Trump's policies. At the same time, she also stated that her expectations for long-term monetary policy are not much different from those of other officials; she only hopes to reach the target more quickly.

The CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 94.1%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 15.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 83.9%.

Technical Analysis：The U.S. dollar has maintained a rebound trend since the September monetary policy meeting. Last week, it encountered resistance and pulled back at 98.58, but no downward trend has been formed. It is expected to rise further in the short term, with attention on the resistance level of 99 above. Intraday, focus on the key support level of 98 below; if it breaks below this level, it will test the support around 97.50.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 opened with a gap higher this week and directly surged above 48,000, continuing the previous upward trend on the daily chart. From the hourly chart, the probability of maintaining a volatile upward trend is high. Attention should be paid to the support at 47,600 below and the resistance around 48,660 above.

Copper

After a short-term sharp rise at the end of September, copper prices have maintained a volatile upward trend in the past two weeks, with strong bullish momentum. In the short term, no top signals have appeared, and the bullish structure remains intact, with the possibility of further gains. Intraday, focus on the support range of $4.93 - $4.96 below and the resistance at $5.05 above.

7 October Market Snapshot

1、On 6 October (U.S. time), the U.S. Senate failed to pass the appropriations bills proposed by both parties, and the government shutdown continues.

2、According to CNBC reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will continue to serve as the Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

3、The Hamas delegation stated that positive progress has been made in indirect negotiations with Israel.

7 October Key Data/Events Preview

1、22:00 (GMT+8): Raphael Bostic, 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, delivers a speech on the economic outlook.

2、22:30 (GMT+8): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a fireside chat.

3、23:00 (GMT+8): U.S. September New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations.

4、23:30 (GMT+8): Neel Kashkari, 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, delivers a speech.

Important Disclaimer:
The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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