【Ｅｖｅｎｉｎｇ ｓｅｓｓｉｏｎ】Ｎｏｎ－Ｆａｒｍ Ｐａｙｒｏｌｌｓ Ｓｕｓｐｅｎｄｅｄ ａｓ Ｓｃｈｅｄｕｌｅｄ； Ｓａｆｅ－Ｈａｖｅｎ Ｄｅｍａｎｄ Ｄｒｉｖｅｓ Ｇｏｌｄ Ｈｉｇｈｅｒ

Gold

During the Asian session, gold successfully broke above the $3,900 level, refreshing its all-time high once again. With a year-to-date gain of over 50%, it has become one of the best-performing assets globally. Currently, there is no sign that gold’s upward momentum is fading, and further upside remains possible.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown may serve as a new driver for gold’s rally. Estimates suggest that each week the government remains shut down could reduce economic growth by approximately 0.15 percentage points; when accounting for the impact on private-sector activities, this decline may widen to 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Trump may leverage the shutdown to implement large-scale layoffs, which could exacerbate internal tensions in the U.S. and undermine the efficiency of government agencies. Overall, short-term U.S. economic and political risks are on the rise.

Peng Cheng, Market Strategist at Zhisheng Research (exclusively invited by Plotio), noted that while the shutdown will eventually end, it will come at the cost of a significant increase in the debt ceiling. U.S. debt will continue to snowball, and to hedge against debt risks, the market may adopt a more diversified approach by increasing holdings of safe-haven assets. The recent performance of assets like gold likely reflects the market’s true intentions.

Technical Analysis: Gold posted a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, and the previous bearish candle was most likely a correction to address excessive divergence from the moving average. A platform breakout occurred on the 4-hour chart, with upward momentum remaining intact—further new highs are highly probable in the short term. Intraday focus should be on the $3,915level as key support.

Crude Oil

Crude oil saw a breakdown on the daily chart, indicating that the medium-term structure may have completed, and oil prices could stage a turnaround. However, constrained by weak fundamentals, the medium-term rebound is likely to be very limited. In the long run, the outlook for oil prices remains bleak, and prolonged consolidation cannot be ruled out.

Geopolitical risks have eased, and the trend even seems to run counter to current oil prices. On September 29 (local time), after a bilateral meeting between U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the two held a press conference. Trump stated that Netanyahu discussed issues including Iran, trade, the Abraham Accords, and the end of the Gaza war, adding that Israel has accepted the Gaza peace plan.

The divergence between geopolitical risks and oil prices suggests that geopolitical factors can hardly provide effective support for oil prices anymore. The market is now placing greater emphasis on crude oil supply and demand dynamics. However, whether in the short or medium term, the contradiction of oversupply in the international crude oil market is unlikely to be resolved, which will limit the upside potential of oil prices and may even trigger a shift in market sentiment at any time.

Technical Analysis: Crude oil hit a new low on the daily chart before closing with a small bullish candle, indicating that the structure may have completed. A medium-term shift in trading direction could be attempted. A bottom divergence emerged on the 4-hour chart, and prices have rebounded to a key resistance level. If they break above $61.80, they may test the $63.40 level.

U.S. Dollar Index

Since the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Dollar Index has remained resilient, with its price pivot showing no downward movement. The shutdown may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down its policy shift, or even delay interest rate cuts.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended the release of key reports such as non-farm payroll data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), depriving the Fed of core decision-making basis ahead of its October 29 meeting. The lack of data may force policymakers to adopt a cautious stance, affecting the Fed’s assessment of whether the economy needs stimulus. Some investment banks even believe the Fed may pause rate cuts in October.

Amid the economic data vacuum, the market has clearly adopted more prudent operations, tending to hold cash rather than assets. This has provided some support to the U.S. Dollar Index to a certain extent, but such support is likely limited. Investors should pay attention to the market guidance provided by Fed officials recently, as this may determine the medium-term trend of the U.S. Dollar Index.

Technical Analysis: The U.S. Dollar Index has been oscillating around its long-term moving average on the daily chart, and the descending continuation pattern may expand. On the 1-hour chart, price lows have moved higher, making an ascending continuation pattern highly probable. A short-term rebound is likely, with intraday focus on the 97.82 level as key support.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 opened with a gap higher on the daily chart, which may lead to excessive divergence from the moving average in the short term, bringing correction risks. A large bearish candle formed on the 4-hour chart, and the structure may have completed—there is a high probability of a phased top emerging. Intraday focus should be on the 48,000 level as key resistance.

Copper

Copper closed with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, but excessive divergence from the moving average suggests potential for a correction. The structure on the 4-hour chart may have completed, and a high-level shooting star candle has formed—short-term downside risks are high. Intraday focus should be on the $5.04 level as key resistance.

6 October Market Snapshot

1、Spot gold broke above $3,900 for the first time.

2、A U.S. judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops from California or other states to Portland, Oregon.

3、Eight major oil-producing countries in OPEC+ decided to maintain production increase measures in November, raising crude oil output by 137,000 barrels per day.

4、Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations in Egypt today (October 6) on the content of the U.S.-proposed "20-point plan," including a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the release of hostages, and Israel’s initial troop withdrawal.

6 October Key Data/Events Preview

1、16:40 (GMT+): Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index (October) – Market expectation: -8.5

2、17:00 (GMT+): Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (August) – Market expectation: -0.1%

3、22:00 (GMT+): U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (September)

Important Disclaimer:

The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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