【Daily Strategy】ADP data poor Gold held firm

Gold:

In terms of risk aversion, the recent U.S. government shutdown has to some extent boosted risk aversion; while President Trump's change of attitude towards Russia may lead to another escalation of the ukraine-Russia conflict; at the same time, the resumption of sanctions against Iran by Europe and the United States will provide support for gold prices.

In economic data, the U.S. released its final September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reading at 49.1, slightly above market expectations of 49. This indicates a slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector's contraction, though still below the expansion-contraction threshold. The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, falling short of the anticipated 50,000 increase. The sluggish job market is expected to provide crucial support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

ChenYu, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research specially invited by Plotio, believe that the current Fed easing policy cycle will provide support for gold prices.

Technical: On the daily chart, the last session was up and closed positive, with further upside opportunities in the short term. Watch for resistance above $3,900 and support below $3,853.

Gold hourly chart

Crude oil:

U.S. EIA crude inventories rose 1.792 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 26, released Wednesday (Oct. 1), slightly higher than market expectations of a 1.048 million barrel increase and a previous decrease of 607,000 barrels, which was bearish for oil prices.

In the crude oil market, recent geopolitical tensions remain elevated, particularly with escalating sanctions from Europe and the United States against Russia and Iran. The risk of supply disruptions will provide some support for oil prices. However, production increases by oil-producing nations are becoming more pronounced. Meanwhile, the global economy faces significant challenges that hinder demand recovery. As the fourth quarter approaches, the risk of oversupply in the oil market is expected to rise markedly, which will limit the upside potential for oil prices.

Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the market has shown sustained downward momentum over recent sessions, indicating a bearish trend. Technical indicators reveal the price is breaking below both the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, with bearish forces currently dominating. Key technical levels to monitor include resistance at $63.57 and support at $61 today.

Crude oil hourly chart

Copper Market Analysis:

On the daily chart, the recent upward trend shows overall strength with volatile fluctuations. Technically, breaking through the previous adjustment range could unlock further upside potential. The 20-day and 62-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, indicating bullish momentum. Key support level to watch today is $4.76.

Regarding the Nikkei 225:

On the daily chart, the market has retreated from recent highs over the past few sessions. Investors should remain cautious about downside risks. However, the overall trend has been trending upward along the 62-day moving average. It's advisable not to be overly bearish until a valid breakdown below this level occurs. Today's key support level to watch is the 44,626 area.

[Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the third-party cooperative platform ZhiSheng for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who operate according to this will bear the risks.]

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