【Evening Session】Risk Aversion Continues to Heat Up Gold Prices Remain Elevated

Gold:

Yesterday (September 30), the market released the number of U.S. JOLTs job openings in August, which was 7.227 million, a slight increase from the previous data of 7.208 million. The data was briefly negative for gold prices but had a weak impact on the gold market.  

According to relevant media reports, on October 1 local time, the U.S. federal government shut down again after nearly seven years. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave, some public services may be suspended or delayed, and the release of economic data will be affected.  

Currently, the White House has officially the shutdown procedure. On the evening of September 30 local time, White House Office of Management and Budget Director G. Walter a memorandum stating that current federal funding will expire at 23:59 tonight.  

Mai Dong, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research specially invited by Plotio, believes that as the U.S. government shuts down, market uncertainty has increased. Coupled with the Federal Reserve starting the interest rate cut cycle, it has helped gold prices continue to hit new highs and maintain a high-level consolidation trend.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a positive candle yesterday, and gold prices remain strong. At the 1-hour level, prices are in an upward trend. Today, pay attention to the support at $3,850 below and the resistance at $3,920 above.  

Crude Oil:

Yesterday, according to relevant media reports, OPEC+ will discuss increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day for the next 3 months. After the news was released, international oil prices continued to fall. However, OPEC+ a statement on social media denying the above report, saying that these reports are completely inaccurate and misleading.  

OPEC+ is considering releasing the remaining 1.66 million barrels per day of production capacity in three months, increasing production by about 500,000 barrels per month. This plan will be formally discussed at the meeting on October 5, and no final decision has been made yet.  

Negotiations are still ongoing, and the final plan may be adjusted. This news has affected the market nerves and concerns about oversupply in the market.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a negative candle yesterday. At the daily level, prices are still consolidating between $61.50 and $66.50. At the 1-hour level, the market is consolidating at the bottom, focusing on whether an effective reversal pattern can be formed. Today, pay attention to the support at $62.10 below and the resistance at $63.80 above.  

U.S. Dollar Index:  

In terms of U.S. data, the market released the U.S. Chicago PMI data for September yesterday, which was 40.6, a slight decline compared with the previous value of 41.5. This indicates that the current manufacturing situation is poor, and the economic situation is very pessimistic, and the U.S. dollar may depreciate further.  

The U.S. government has shut down. White House Office of Management and Budget Director G. Walter sent a letter to the heads of various agencies only a few hours before U.S. government funds expire at midnight. Walter wrote in the memorandum that affected agencies should now implement their orderly shutdown plans.  

Walter wrote in the memorandum that it is currently unclear how long the Democrats will maintain their unattainable stance, so the duration of the shutdown is difficult to predict.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a negative candle yesterday. At the daily level, prices are still running below 98.80. At the 1-hour level, the market is in a downward trend. Intraday, pay attention to the support at 97.20 below and the resistance at 97.90 above.  

Nasdaq:  

The Nasdaq closed with a negative candle on the daily chart. At the daily level, the market was suppressed by the previous high yesterday, and there is a risk of continued decline. At the 1-hour level, prices did not hit a new high, and the short-term trend may reverse. Today, pay attention to the resistance at 24,600 above and the support at 24,200 below.  

Copper:

The daily chart of copper closed with a negative candle. At the daily level, the market was suppressed at the 2.90 integer mark and fell back briefly, but the upward trend has not changed. At the 1-hour level, prices fell back to near the 120-day moving average and found support. The market is currently rising, focusing on whether the market can break below the 120-day moving average in the next few days. Today, pay attention to the support at $4.75 below and the resistance at $4.87 above.  

October 01 Market Roundup  

1. U.S. federal funds are exhausted, and the government is shut down.  
2. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the inflation outlook is "quite moderate," suggesting he and his colleagues may be willing to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being.  
3. Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden believes there is room for further interest rate cuts.  
4. Switzerland and the United States issued a joint statement vowing not to manipulate exchange rates, and the Swiss National Bank promised to focus its monetary policy on price stability.  

October 01 Key Data/Events Preview  

1. 20:15: U.S. September ADP Employment Change.  
2. 21:45: U.S. September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final.  
3. 22:00: U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI.  
4. 22:00: U.S. August Construction Spending (month-on-month).  
5. 22:30: U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending September 26.  

Important Statement：

The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform, Zhisheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.  

This article is from Plotio; please cite the source when reprinting.

【In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.】